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If you ask people substantive policy questions about immigration — even if you ask Republicans — the answers are surprisingly centrist.

Most of Trump’s hardcore supporters live in areas where there aren’t very many immigrants.

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Immigration is a symbolic issue, instead, that candidates wield to prove they’re not part of a corrupt establishment. The first is that an unusually large segment of Republicans dislike him.

anna: Right, so if he’s seen as pandering to the rest, couldn’t that hurt him with those hardcore supporters? natesilver: Look, he’s doubled and tripled and quadrupled down on appealing to that 35 percent — probably to his ultimate detriment. The second is that an even larger segment of general election voters dislike him.

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If he can convince people that it’s just part of the Trump show, couldn’t that win some people over? He hasn’t really gained per se as much as Clinton has lost. Trump’s at 37.7 percent in our national polling average. Anna, is there more of a consensus position on immigration policy that Trump can adopt? There’s a safer route, but he’s made this a key rallying issue, which probably helped him early on.Can he just stop talking about it now and inspire the same fervor at rallies? And silence could probably be an effective Band-Aid on that wound while he talks about economic policy.micah: Well, he’s doing the exact opposite, giving a “MAJOR!!! How will you know if it’s a policy speech if you don’t watch?harry: I’m less interested in what he says than how he says it. micah: Nate, you’re playing into people’s stereotypes about how we don’t care about issues. The wall, deportation, ending birthright citizenship … I wonder if he’s really going to address the humanity of immigrants as has been suggested. anna: What the process would be for a touchback system, for example. But all of his ideas (Nate’s right, they aren’t policy) so far are so completely absurd. Then again, as you’ve both said, most voters don’t care that much about immigration.

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That’s part of what got Trump in so much trouble in the first place. natesilver: If nothing else, I think we’ll learn something about who has his ear from the speech.

micah: I guess, intellectually, I would think this would hurt him. And many general election voters have an unfavorable view of Trump because of his divisive comments on race and immigration — 59 percent, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, said “the way Donald Trump talks appeals to bigotry.” And so what happens is Trump is trying to play both sides, and to me seems like he’s playing none.



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